The next big fight for your TV screen may not be only about hit shows and live sports. It may also be about ads, operating systems, and who controls the home screen when you first switch your TV on.
A new Omdia forecast expects global connected TV ad revenue to grow from $44 billion in 2025 to $81 billion by 2030.
It also expects Google, Amazon, and Netflix to control about 48% of that market by the end of the decade. Google will be at 26%, Amazon at 13%, and Netflix at 9%.
Why should you care?
When you turn on your streaming gadget, you do not see your show directly. The first thing you see is a home page, a row of recommendations, or a promoted title.
That space is now very valuable because it shapes what you watch next.
On Google TV, the Masthead ad appears as the first impression on the screen and sits in the first slot of the Featured carousel on the For you tab.
On Fire TV, Amazon offers a Feature Rotator that sits above the fold and is described as the most visible part of the interface.
The living room is not only a content space anymore. It is also an ad space and a recommendation space. So the company that controls the home screen can influence what gets surfaced, what gets promoted, and what you click first.
Google vs Amazon vs Netflix
Google’s strength starts with YouTube. YouTube has been No. 1 in U.S. streaming watch time for nearly three years, according to YouTube’s 2026 CEO letter, and YouTube content is drawing more than 1 billion hours of TV watch time every day around the world.
Google also has influence through its TV operating system.
Amazon’s edge is not only Prime Video. It is also Fire TV. The giant has sold more than 200 million devices globally, and advertisers can buy home-screen placements such as Sponsored Tiles, Sponsored Screensavers, and the high-visibility Feature Rotator.
Netflix, on the other hand, now has an ad plan. The tier now reaches more than 250 million people globally. The firm now plans to add ads and also bring the plan to more countries.
What this could mean for you by 2030
If Omdia’s forecast is right, a few changes could become more common over the next several years:
- More promoted titles, apps, and carousels on TV home screens
- More ads built into the TV interface before you open a streaming app
- More recommendations shaped by your watch habits, searches, and connected services
- More power for the platforms that control both viewing data and discovery tools
This does not automatically mean a worse viewing experience. Better recommendations could help you find something faster. Ad-supported plans also keep subscription prices lower for some people.